Stone Cold Blog

This is gonna sound like a load of waffle but it's true and do-able

You know how sometimes you can just feel that someone is seriously happy or upset the moment they walk in the room even though they may not be facing you? This is feeling projection. We do this naturally without even thinking about it, both the picking up and receiving of these messages.  You will only be able to receive these or give them out if you have expereinced the same emotion. This shouldn't be too hard with poker cards! There is more to it than simply telling yourself that you have rockets down there! but that is a good start. It's a similar difference between being a great actor and pants actor. It's all in the eyes – no matter what someone is telling you it is very very hard for them to lie with their eyes (hence why sunglasses are often worn!) – Eyes are described as "a window to the sole" and they truly are.

Tom Cruise can't act with his eyes, he can do all the other movements which can nearly convince you but if you look into his eyes you still see Tom Cruise. However take a look at Christina Ricci and you will see that her movements are much more subtle but the eyes are full of what she's trying to convey. Philip Seymour Hoffman, who has just won an oscar and is the same. Look into his eyes and you will see the whole character that he is playing!
 
Try to believe what you are thinking with your eyes and you will be closer to projecting this.

 - Duff

Odds
I’ve probably jibbered on about these before, but they are so so important that I’m going to cover them again!

You now know how to work out how many “outs” you have – this will be used to determine the odds of the hand. – if the odds aren’t there, then you shouldn’t be calling. Players often say that they use their “gut”, fair enough, and you may well get lucky sucking out a straight or flush on the river, however in the long run you will be throwing away money and tournament chips! – let me show you why!

The simplest way to work out odds for your next card is multiply the number of “outs” by 2 and then add 2 – it’s really that simple.

So let’s put this into practice

You have Q-J and the board comes 10-9-2 – at the moment any 8 or K will give you a straight

there are four 8s and four Ks so that’s a total of eight outs : here’s the maths

8(outs) x 2 = 16 .. +2 = 18% – that’s pretty much 5/1 not too bad (18% / 100%)

Here’s how to put those “odds and outs” into practice:

you have your classic Q-J and you call the BB which is say $50, someone else raises it to $100 but seeing as there are five players all called it’s another $50 to you to attempt to win $500 ! (5players x $100 each) – the board again comes 10-9-2 (surely someone needs to shuffle ! .. anyway) now here’s the odds bit…….. if someone was to bet $500 into a $500 pot then you are getting only 2/1 (your $500 to try to win $1000) – so here you should laydown – however let’s say that first position bets only $100 into a $500 pot, even if the others fold then you are still getting 6/1 (your $100 to win the $100 just put in by first player and the $500 already in the pot.) – this is great !

The reason that odds are so important is because looking at the above example, you will only make your straight once in every five attempts, so if you did the above example 5 times you should win one of them. Therefore if it costs you $100 each time then:

the four times you lose …. you’ve spent $400
but the time you win …. if using the above you are getting 6/1 so win $600 – thus you are actually now in profit

Now turn it the other way and say that you called the $500 bet into a $500 pot each time (odds of 2/1!)

The four times you lose … you’ve spend $2000
but the time you win …. if using the above you are getting only 2-1 so you win $1000 – thus you are still $1000 down and counting !

The same goes for any out that you are “chasing!”

Duff

How many outs you have is a key in determining whether you have the odds to call or not. Outs are merely how many cards are left in the deck that can help you. Being able to work these out quickly can be very handy.

a few good ones to remember:

If you have a flush draw (4 to a flush) – you have 9 outs
(there are 13 cards in each suit A2345678910JQK, you can see four of them so 13-4 = 9 left.

open-ended straight draw – you have 8 outs
(say you have 4567 – any 3 or 8 gives you the straight – there are four 3’s and four 8’s left so 4+4 = 8 left.

a gutshot straight draw (or inside as it’s known) – you have 4 outs
(say you have 45×78 – any 6 gives you a straight – there are four 6’s in the deck so = 4 left

These are needed in order to work out the odds … which will be in tomorrow’s exciting chapter !

- Duff

…… where are they now (James Blunt) – anyway …..
As I mentioned yesterday you have to think long and hard about the hand that your opponent could be holding, the fact that turkey-face should have laid that hand down when i made a pot size bet is no excuse, as my old headmaster at school used to say “Ignorance is no defence” – and it’s true!
So onto today’s tip – Poker is all about asking questions, whether it’s raising a guy for all of his chips or asking where the nearest facilities are after 4 JD and cokes, it’s question question question. Not only will you be asking questions to others but also and almost more importantly you have to ask yourself things constantly. A very simple method of working out whether your hand could be good is by asking (probably best in your head than out loud!) what you want them to be holding and what don’t you want them to be holding – if the answers are heavily weighted to one side then that should give you all the info you need.
Taking yesterday’s example where i had AQu and the other guy had J10u with the board showing A-5-10-10 – by asking questions (if i had a pound for every time i’ve said question in this tip i could enter the world series! sorry) i could have worked it out. (considering that he called a raise)

What DO i want him to have?
A worse Ace – so A3, A4, A6 etc or any pocket pair (not aces!)

What DON’T i want him to have?
A5, A10, any 10, 5-5, 5-10, A-A, 10-10, any flush draw.

With that you can see that the DON’Ts very much outway the DOs – a lay down here would have been sensible (a lay down of my head was useful after as i was knackered !)

Now put it round the other way and let’s say that we are holding A-A (nice!)

What DO i want him to have?
anything really at all but would prefer him to have something so that i can get more money out of him.

What DON’T i want him to have?
the only thing that can beat me here is 10-10

Here the DOs are much more so clearly i’m gonna try and get everything i can.

Duff

I have mentioned before about putting a lot of thought into why another player is calling and what hands they could have – Last night I was tired and fancied a quick game (not a wise combo) but i certainly had a quick game (coming 8th) .. but really this was a win-win situation apart for my poker account balance. …… However upon re-examining my exit, if i had actually been paying attention then i could have easily got away from the hand. Rather than a lesson for me, I see it as a reconfirmation that I was right and will make sure i don’t play tired again. A guy about 5 seats to my right (let’s call him “turkey-face”) started as he meant to go on by cranking it up the very first hand (i was not involved in this one, but i was watching) – the flop on this hand came out J-8-7, leaving him with a gutshot straight draw needing 10-1 odds, so he went all in!, got called .. the other guy i really don’t know what he was doing calling but turkey-face had A-10 unsuited – not great ! – but he ended up winning Ace high ! hehe – I put this in his notes that he doesn’t play odds and clearly doesn’t have a clue. .. Into the next blind level and I get A-Qu, I raise and get called by two players, one of which is turkey-face, the flop comes down A-5-10 .. so i’m sitting there with top pair and great kicker , I bet 200 into a 270 pot and he calls, the other guy folds …next card is .. another 10 ……… i then here make my mistake .. i bet 100 in to see where i was and sure enough he raised all in (he had me covered) .. at the time my thought process was “he’s bluffing, let’s have it” – however if you think about it now what do you think he’s holding ? – it turns out that he’s holding J-10u .. ouch ! – now how i should have thought (and which could have got me off the hand was as follows) … ” right he’s called my raise, but yet he doesn’t play odds so he either has 1 of 3 types of hands – he’s either got any 2 suited cards and thinks they are good (this could potentially be something like A-5s and has flopped 2 pair, in which case i’m beat. … he could have connected cards (like A-K then i’m out kicked,J-10, he has trips or K-Q, giving him a gutshot straight draw again, which he will call any bet with anyway) or he could have an actual hand and already have trips. – upon looking at this and seeing the extra 10 it should have been fairly obvious that i was beaten … he’s called my flop pot sized bet so i doubt he has a 5 (unless he has trips which i’m beat) he has middle pair a 10, which i’m now beat, or he has 2 pair or better which i’m beat …… so basically although i don’t see this as a major mistake, this is the kind of thought process that would have kept me in still with 400 in chips with the big blind still only at 30. You live and learn and I hope this helps you as much as it did me – quite a cheap but good lesson for $10

Duff