“Chris Ferguson I think would be a little intimidating cause… y’know… he’s got artificial intelligence… and he can also cut bananas in half with a card.”
- Jenifer Tilly @ Monte Carlo Millions 2005
Archive for February, 2007
Inflection Points
Please know your inflection points, unless you are playing against me then I’m happy for you to get ruined.
Vster and I played over at Sovereigns Poker club on Sat night at the £40 semi-freezeout. For a full detailed description of proceedings please check out the Podcast at stonecoldbluff.co.uk/podcasts
There were only 19 runners and only a handful of players actually were aware of how to play poker properly. The others were a few legs and a baize short of a poker table. I still find it incredible how these people find the money to play this badly! I’m not saying that I am totally amazing and am unbeatable, however I do know my odds from my elbow.
Some of the more regulars down there are surely just throwing money away in the hope of getting completely lucky. Maybe the judge who ruled on the Gutshot “luck vs chance” debate had been watching them play before he came to his decision. Who knows?!
Sovereigns is a nice little club with a very homely atmosphere. Everyone seems to know everyone else but in no way is there any “door creaking” when first playing. The regulars welcome you into the club with open arms, which is always nice, and the last two times that we have been, with an open wallet as well! Which needless to say is very nice.
I must also add that the dealers are excellent and a special mention to the guy who has dealt the two finals tables that I have seen. I do like that fact that ALL tables are dealer dealt, so there isn’t the first time chaos and torrent of misdeals that plagues Gutshot. They keep the game running smoothly and do a great job.
There were players who were going “all-in” more often than I was even in a hand most of the time and who clearly weren’t concerned that they weren’t noticing their own table image and then said “oh well, that’s poker” when they got ruined by a tight player. There are certain gears that have to be used. However these must be changed to keep people guessing and you also must always be aware of what gear others perceive you to be in. This is a very important point.
So, enough of the moaning, what actually happened? Well, I ended up getting joint 1st after cutting a deal at the end – top 3 were getting paid and I was running low on chips. Luckily for both myself and the other short stack, it was the chip leader’s first time. This was made obvious by some of his more “mysterious” calls all through the tournament. I never knew that calling 70% of my stack with K5s against a tight player was a winning move. We elected to split it 3 ways which was certainly fine by me each walking away with £306 – lovely.
V and I had chosen to sit tight and not to rebuy whatever happened. We managed to stay nice and tight up until the first break without too much going wrong. It then came the time of the good old inflection point! Knowing these is paramount and really not rocket science.
If you have between 10x or 5x the big blind then there is no other option but to lump all of your chips in the middle. You have to keep your “fold equity” or else you will end up getting called by the lose bunch. We knew ours and lumped. I elected Ace 9 unsuited to be my hand of choice, mostly because I was first in whilst in middle position. I got called by TT on the small blind and was about to accept my fate when Barry Greenstein pounced with an Ace on the River. I was back in the game and doubled up. Unfortunately V didn’t have as much luck with his KQu. Twice he lumped and twice he didn’t quite get there. KQu isn’t the best hand to lump with but when those blinds are coming round it seems as good a hand as any.
I also had some luck with a dream flop of 4Q9 with my BB holding of 49u. I bet out to protect my two pair about 2/3 of the pot and got raised all in by a guy holding a Q. I thought about it for a bit and then after ruling out trips or anything better I called and doubled up again. I had gone from 3k in chips to 18k in not too long a time. This is why inflection points are important.
Not only do they give you fold equity, but they also give you the chance to double up to 10x bb and then should you do it again from there 20x bb. Once you are back up here again then you can play normally for a bit. However if you slip below the magic 5x then suddenly even if you double up you end up with only say 6x even if you get dealt rockets! You are still in a serious position when you could have had 10x to push with and double up!
I managed to play my stack accordingly and push when I had to and make some good laydowns when needed. I folded JJ with a raise from two loose players and rightly knew that I was up against Ace rag. It turned out to be a very nice little laydown.
here is a nice section on the podcast about the deal that was cut and how you shouldn’t get too greedy as one player did and he ended up leaving with nothing. Blimey, I sound like Anne Robinson!
Keep checking out the tips on the website and I will see you on the final table next time I’m down there.
Cheers
Duff
Should I Call or Should I Fold?
Another Sunday, another Virgin V-points freeroll. Everything was great at one point. I’m sitting pretty with a little over 5,500 in chips while the average stack is around 3,600. Blinds currently at 150/300
I’m dealt a frosty 88 and the table folds round to the player to my right who flat calls. I’m sat on the button and I know that the guy to my right is a semi-tight player and so I decide to flat call. The small blind folds and the big blind checks.
The board comes down 9 6 2 rainbow. The BB checks and the guy to my right minimum bets 300. I think this is a steal and so to get information I raise up to 900 total. The big blind, who checked the flop now calls the bet and the guy to my right folds.
Im happy that I spotted the steal bet from the opening bettor, but what could BB be check/calling with? I put him on something like K9 or A9 which is the only semi-sensible explanation for his play. It’s a shame because this puts him in front. Oh well, lets see the turn card…
Its a 7 which now gives me open-ended. Im wary that the other guy has TPGK, so I decide to check. There’s a weighty 3150 in the pot. The BB bets out 1,200. I do a quick bit if maths.
Ive got 10 outs : any 5, any 10, any 8.
10 outs with 1 card to come = 3.7:1 to hit (I know this from the crib sheet in front of me at the time).
There’s 4,250 in the pot and the bet to me is 1,200.
The clock’s ticking and I work out I roughly have correct odds to call.
I miss on the river and was relieved to see my opponent check. I welcome the free showdown and indeed, he turned over A9s and scooped the pot.
Looking back on this, it works out that my pot odds for the bet on the turn were 3.54:1 and I needed 3.7:1 at least to call. With such a marginal difference (0.16) was this an incorrect call?
If you bear in mind that this call was leaving me with only 10xBB should I lose, does this situation warrant an all-or-nothing all-in? Should I have cut my losses earlier on in the hand?
As it turns out, shortly after this hand I was moved to another table and got hit immediately with another BB and I didn’t really recover well. Spookily, I finished in 88th place (my hole cards for the hand above; 88) and the last hand I pushed with was A9s (my opponents cards for the hand above).
V
Lay Down JJ?
Question – you hold JJ and the flop comes down JQK rainbow – you bet out full pot and they call with AK – the turn comes T!! – - you know pretty much for certain that they have and Ace and they now bet 200 into a 400 pot – you both have 5000 in chips – should you call?!
It would surprisingly be a call !
You have trips and he has a straight – with a non flush-tastic board he certainly has the best hand – that is unless you hit either a Q, K or T on the river – there are so far as you are aware 3 of each giving you 9 outs. Take it down to 8 douts just incase. That’s 5:1 that you will get what you need. You both have 5000 in chips and it’s very likely that he simply wont be able to get away from his hand even should you hit. So your implied odds are actually imcredible !
He has 5000 left and you have to call 200 so your implied odds are 25:1! It would be worth a call in a situation like this.
A note – clearly if he didn’t have a straight then you prob wouldn’t even win one bet out of him let alone 25 ! so in this case you don’t have the implied odds to call
- Duff
Don’t Give Him The Odds to Call
Let’s say you are sat in a $10/$20 cash game of No Limit Hold Em. You are on the BB and the table all fold around to the SB who raises up to $50. You look down and see Ah 7d. Not the best hand in the world but you have position and $20 in already so you call.
Here’s The Flop
The board has come down Ac 7c 3s. Fantastic – two pair! You opponent now checks. You have hit two pair but there are two clubs out on the board.
What Do You Do?
You are in the wrong place if you decide to check here. It’s no good check trapping with two pair only for a third club to fall on the turn and possibly make your opponent his flush. A bonus point is awarded to anyone who thought betting out here was the right thing to do.
But how much?
How much should the bet be into a board like this? You do not want to scare the guy off otherwise you will not get paid. However, you also do not want to give him correct odds to call if he is on a flush draw. The only way to bet this hand is to overbet the pot.
Currently there is a total of $100 in the pot. If you make a pot sized bet of $100, you are offering your opponent odds of 2:1 on his money. He has to call your bet of $100 in order to potentially win $200 (consists of the pot pre-flop + your $100 bet).
The correct odds of your oppnent calling a four-to-a-flush bet with two cards to come is 1.9:1 Your opponent has every right to call here and maybe make his hand if he is getting 2:1 on his money.
Now look at the situation if you bet $120 into the $100 pot. You opponent now has to call $120 in order to potentially win $220. Here you are offering him pot odds of 1.8:1 on his money. He could still call here as the difference between his outs and the pot odds on offer are slim, but in the long run he will lose money.
Betting 120% of the pot in this kind of situation is the minimum needed to discourage your opponent from calling.
Personally, I would reccomend betting about 140% of the pot just so your opponent gets a much clearer message that he is not going to get profitable odds to call.
Bananas? You’d Need A Truck Load of Them!
V and I head off down to Sovereign’s Poker place last night for a £50 + 5 buy-in tourney. It’s a nice enough place although slightly “back-roomy”. When we signed in and paid up there were only about 17 players registered. Luckily about 20 mins later there were 26 players and we were ready to play.
We had already stated our game-plan of keeping it tight within the first two levels of Blinds, which we pretty much did. I managed to steal a few pots and won one with my AJu after hitting a Jack on the flop and I bet every street. The guy who called me said “I knew you had AJ!!” to which my reply was “So why did you call then!!?”. Hehe
I had my first encounter with one of their much looked after monkeys. I raised in EP with JJ and this guy raises loads more! I thought about folding but then I had seen a few strange raises by him with A5u etc so I decided to put him all in. He called quicker than lightning and to my delight turned over 66! I say delight…until the river card which brought a 6. This same monkey proceeded to ride his amazing luck for a few more hands before I was off to another table.
There was the usual information gaining banter going on at the table and so I had heard (from the person concerned) that he hadn’t had any cards all night. Two rounds later and he’s all in. Now bearing in mind the fact that any ace would look good if you are impatient and have not seen anything I called with AKu. He turned over AT and managed to hit a T on the flop. My stack was now starting to suffer, the blinds were going up and it had been folded round to me on the SB – I look down to find KJs, so I raise it 5x the BB, semi-bluffing a steal and get one caller. The flop comes K 5 7 rainbow and I lump all in. He turns over 57u !!! To say I was not impressed was an understatement – I left gracefully enough (although I must say the word “monkey!” did pass my lips!) and jaunted over to V to tell him the bad news.
V wasn’t exactly Mr Chips himself but he had been keeping his powder dry and was waiting for his Martine McCutcheon. After a quick SCB chat he started to change gears and after scooping a few more pots it was starting to look more rosey – Suddenly he was scooping left right and centre and was well up on the average and before you know it the final table was looming.
Yes this was a £50 buy in, but I wasn’t expecting the final table to last for about 3-4 hours!! V played very well and resisted the not-so-good opportunities and waited, whilst constantly checking chip stacks etc. I was there on the side lines all the way. However he (we! 
) did it, he managed to get down to the final 3. Only 4 places were getting paid, but the table agreed to slice a little off the other places to pay out £50 to 5th place. The final deal was cut between the last three players which meant that all 3 of them walked away with £350 each. V actually managed to get 2nd place which would have incidentally only given him £250 had the deal not been made! Nice deal!
We had pre-agreed that we would have a 50/50 interest in each other and so split anything that we won – so we ended up with a clear profit of £115 each – thanks V !
So moral of the story – just get your chips in with the best hand against these monkeys and although you may hit some hard luck (as I did) you can also survive most of the field!
Cheers – happy punting
duff
Chav Poker
You can find Duff and Vster from Stonecoldbluff down at the Sovereign Poker rooms in North Camp, Farnborough this evening. We are checking out this club as it is fairly local to us and we have not yet visited it before. We shall be entering the £50 + £5 no limit second-chance freezeout tourney. The game starts at 8.30. Come and say hello – don’t be shy, we might even buy you a pint.
Vster
Split Pot? You’re Joking !
I was playing a tasty bit of $0.50 / $1 on Virgin Poker last night and had been playing fairly tight – I’m sitting on the big blind with A4u and everyone calls – There are 7 players to the flop (yes I did say seven !!) – the flop comes rather nice for me:
2 3 5 rainbow – I check and there is betting all the way round and so I raise – nice !! – then I get reraised and it goes to the maximum of $2 each on this round of betting – then the turn :
Q – still rainbow ! – nicccccce! – I bet and there is even more raising (only about 5 players left at this stage, THIS ends up getting reraised to the hilt of $4 each- lovely !! – then the river:
6 – still nice (unless anyone is sitting there with 47! – 3 players left at this point and it goes raise – raise – raise – the other guy mucks and the only other chum left shows K4u!! – and we split the pot !! – he really was hoping for that 6 ! – although really it was an interesting hand in terms of odds as he flopped open ended and so with all the raising that was going he was always correct to call
We took down a huge pot each, but it’s just a damn shame that it wasn’t all mine ! hehe
cheers
Duff
How’d you like them odds!!
So you’re holding suited cards and you wanna hit a flush – what exactly are your chances ? See below…
Chances of :
Flopping a flush with 2 suited cards = 241/1
Flopping a flush draw with 2 suited cards = 8/1
Holding a pair and flopping a set = 7.5/1
Flopping a straight with hands like JT or 54 = 76/1
Flopping a straight with hands like A5 or AQ = 332/1
Flopping a straight draw with 8 outs with hands like JT or 54 = 9/1
Flopping a straight draw with 8 outs with hands like KQ or 63 = 31/1
Flopping a straight or flopping a straight draw with 8 outs with hands like JT or 54 = 8/1
Flopping a straight or flopping a straight draw with 8 outs with hands like A2 or A3 = 332/1
Flopping a straight or flopping a straight draw with 8 outs with hands like QJ, T8 or 64 = 12/1
Some of those odds are incredible, and some people play any suited cards! Mugs; 241/1 how’d you like them odds?
Further point – Vster wrote back:
But one thing I dont understand is the difference between these two:
Flopping a straight draw with 8 outs with hands like JT or 54 = 9/1
Flopping a straight draw with 8 outs with hands like KQ or 63 = 31/1
“Hands like JT”, does that mean suited connectors? or any two connecting cards?
Why are odds 9/1 for JT but 31/1 for KQ? surely chances are the same?
My response:
Eassssssssy, they are sooooooooooo not the same. How many different straights can you make with JT ? ….. 4! – can you make that many with KQ ….. errrrrr .. no
JT :
AKQJT
KQJT9
QJT98
JT987
KQ:
AKQJT
KQJT9
Same goes for a split like 63
63:
23456
34567
Lovely, hope that’s got it
Cheers,
Duff
