Rummaging around in my archived inbox, I came across this little gem from none other than Simon Davis:
Do you have the discipline to fold pocket aces before the flop?
Imagine the scenario. You’re playing Texas hold’em poker in a single table sit-and-go tournament. It’s getting towards the latter stages, five players are left and you can smell an in-the-money finish. But you need to get in to the top three and stay there – while your chip stack would be nice if it was bigger. The blinds are becoming significant and you know you’ll have to make your move soon.
Out come the cards – miracles of miracles, you look down at your cards and see the magic AA looking back at you. Now, surely this means it’s you right to win the hand. Announce “I’m all-in” and become the chip leader.
Now, under most circumstances there’s no doubt that you should either push in a tasty raise or even all-in with those big aces. Although remarkable as it may seem, there are times to fold those “pocket rockets” and not see a flop. It takes discipline to do and is all about risk versus reward.
If you’re playing single table sit and go tournaments you must finish in the first three to get a return on your entry fee. We all know that the great starting hands don’t come along too often and when they do, a lot of players become married to the hand and can’t put it down under any circumstances.
The savy player knows when to fold. And that includes folding AA pre-flop. Here’s when to consider very carefully when to muck those aces before the flop.
Back to the scenario. Five players left, you’re in fourth place with those Aces screaming at you to push your chips in. But you have the advantage being in last position to act. Two players with bigger stacks than you throw enough chips in the pot to force you all-in if you decide to play. And now the small stack in fifth place takes his chances and goes all-in.
The action is now on you. The urge to splash your chips in to the middle is irresistible. But before you do – thnk about it for a moment. As things stand, you can fold your aces now with the chance of moving in to third place and a money finish without risk.
If the player in the hand with the biggest stack wins it, he’ll take out the other two with smaller stacks and you instantly get bumped up to third place and guaranteed money without. And without risking any of your chips which you still have to fight with.
Risk = zero. Reward = third place at least and a guaranteed prize money.
That’s when to fold anything pre-flop, not just aces. Throw anything away at any stage if it means you can move in to the money without risk.
- SimonÂ
craig said
that is the stupidest thing i have ever heard. u have pocket aces idiot, pre flop u are winning, u dont fold if u are winning, if 3 people are all in u r more than likely going 2 triple up and have a larger stack. now u can win the tournment no just place. id love to play against u if ur gonna throw aces away against me just coz i got more chips than u, idiot
Vster said
Think outside the box here Craig. Yes, AA is the best starting hand you can get, it will win against one random hand more times than it loses. But the situation described above indicates several players involved in the hand.
The more opponents that are up against your aces, the less likey you are to win.
When playing aces, there are only two cards left in the deck that can realisticly improve your hand – the other two aces. When 3 people are all in you have to figure that one, if not both, your aces are already out there. If someone is playing TJs there are many more cards they can hit to improve their hand. In fact, TJs has the best chance of cracking aces if you get your money in there pre flop due to the outs offered by straights and flushes.
Also throw into the mix the fact that only top three places of this tournament are paid.
When you say “If 3 people are all in u r more than likely going 2 triple up” this simply is not true. If three people are all in you are not MORE than likely to triple up, you are LESS likely due to the number of players involved.
I challenge you to take a deck of cards now, pull out two aces, and give the deck a good shuffle. Deal out 3 pairs of hole cards, then burn and turn to the river. Do this at least 10 times (more times for more accuracy) or use this poker calculator. See for yourself how many times the aces hold up. It will at best be 70% of the time. Is it really worth risking your entire tournament on playing this hand knowing you are going into the flop with a 30% chance of being knocked out?
Sometimes poker is not all about the cards you hold, it is about being aware of the situation you are in.
jrocpoker said
Here’s a similar situation with KK.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=6439736
Very interesting arguments here.
Vster said
I guess you need to be logged in to view that link as it doesn’t seem to work for me. Are you able to repost the link or maybe copy-past it in? Cheers – V
jrocpoker said
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=6436741&page=0&fpart=1&vc=1
I copy and pasted this link. so hopefully it will work. You don’t need to be logged in to the forums to view this as it’s open to everyone.
wow said
actually, 76 suited and 87 suited have the best chance against aces…. and it is still only 22%
Your logic is dumb, you say they have more cards to hit… yes but they have to hit them, you dont have to if you have aces
If you want to use that philosophy you should just push anything you get suited connectors because you have more “cards to hit” than those with higher cards
If you lay down aces preflop to get in the money, then I really wish to see your donk ass at my table… my god
Vster said
You have been picked out of the circus audience to take part in a knife-throwing act – much to your protest. You are to be stood in front of a wooden board and have knives thrown at you. The circus ring master allows you to pick one of two knife-throwers. One is “Marco” – a knife throwing expert who has never missed a target in his life. You are 100% likely to survive. The other is “Polo” – Marco’s apprentice. Hes a bit hungover and shaky and theres a 15% chance one of the knives is going straight into your head.
Which knife thrower do you choose?
After my “donk ass” has taken your money at the poker table, remind me to buy you a ticket to the circus.
http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/questions/folding-aa-preflop.htm
http://www.poker-king.com/poker-king-articles.php?article=103
http://www.imaconlinepoker.com/forums/texas-holdem-poker/29-anyone-ever-fold-pocket-aces-pre.html
http://luckydogpoker.com/?page_id=202
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.gambling.poker/browse_frm/thread/8b436417aabd4f6f/aa5c162871d1ade1?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&c2coff=1&rnum=86&prev=/groups%3Fhl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26c2coff%3D1%26q%3Dpreflop%26meta%3Dgroup%253Drec.gambling.poker#aa5c162871d1ade1
http://www.surferspoker.com/showthread.php?t=502
Mud said
The only way to calculate the answer to this question is to know the payout structure and chip stacks. If third and first pay roughly the same then it is probably always a fold. If there is a big difference in the payout the more it leans to pushing as it pays more over time.
ramakazi said
Nice post!
Thanks for the information!
It was helpful!
fold'em said
I totally agree with you. There was once, i was in a tournament and the blinds were killing everyone except the Big Stack. Some guy pushed all in with Ad7d and the Big Stack (who had 3 times his stack) pushed his whole stack in with KcQc… And “lucky” me, i had the rockets and made the “easy” all in call.
The rest is history when the flop game KQx x x…. After that, i have learned to fold KK or even QQ…
Vster said
“never fold AA pre-flop. Play to win” doesnt really make sense. If folding your hand is a strategy used in order to win…
Its a tricky one to discuss. Some people just can not see that AA is not invincable. Aces do get cracked and the more opponents you face in the hand the more likely it is to happen.
Yes I agree that you should always play to win and not necessarily to scrape the money, but unless you play sensibly you are never going to get paid at all.
AA is my favourite starting hand – but you have to admit that there is under certain circumstances correct conditions for folding aces. As an extreme example, the rest of the table each moves all in and you have AA on the big blind. Do you call?
Rommel said
ummm… never fold AA pre-flop. Play to win…. Gaurunteeing a cash is not the way to play. If your focus is to be in the money then the tourney was probably too much for your bankroll.
deez said
Heck yes u call with AA in the big blind if the whole table goes all in….WHAT DONKEYS!!!
Vster said
But why!?!?! Tell me the % chance that you will win.
deez said
u have a better % than anyone else at the table….period.
Vster said
Lets assume the two big stacks are playing the next best possible starting hands. KK and QQ respectively. Lets also assume the small stack holds the next best starting hand which is JJ. The chances of you winning is 54.7% which is little more than a coin flip. Have you battled all this way in the tournament just to have your fate decided on the flip a coin? Suppose the other guy at the table was all in with the next best starting hand of TT. What would you do now? This only gives you a 44.6% chance of winning which means in the long run you will lose. Would you still put your chips in knowing that you are more likely to lose than win? If the answer is yes, then I must invite you to our home games! You are right though, in the described situation, you do have a better % than everyone else. But the odds are only ever so slightly in your favour. In my opinion, the odds are not stacked enough for me to make this call. I will happily fold and make some money. If I wanted to bet on coin flips, I would play roulette.
Duff said
in a nutshell the guy who thinks that you should call on the BB with EVERYone else at the table all in with AA is quite simply … deluded – deez is a Donk
I will totally and whole-heartedly agree with him that he is “winning” and has a slightly higher % chance of winning that anyone else …….
however – I would very much like him to explain how much exactly % chance he believes that he has of turning over his rockets against 9 other players on the river and being the winner? – can he answer that one ?
Can You Fold Aces Preflop? - Gambling.co.uk Forum said
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ihate You said
…the key in poker is to get your money in the middle with the highest % chance to win the hand…
p.s. cashing in a 9 man is what….not even double your buy in?…if you’re that worried about that….shoot self in face immedately
Ben said
Folding AA preflop here is clearly wrong unless the top 3 payouts are near identical (almost never unless it’s a satellite situation).
It’s not just about risk vs. reward. You are saying a 50% of losing with AA justifies folding since you are guaranteed placing.
I’ll give you 2 options. 1 of them is that I hand you a $10 bill. The other option is that I will flip a coin. Heads, you win nothing, and tails, you win $100. Obviously, you pick the second option, although you are losing your “guarantee.”
Steve said
You have a 44% chance to win 4x your stack in that extreme example with a pile of players all in with KK,QQ etc. So you’re getting plenty odds to call with aces if they went all in. You’d snap call in a cash game, of couse in the SNG you have to decide not whether this move is +EV (getting just under even money for a 4/1 shot is def +EV in a cash game) but whether you’ll quad up and then win the tourney enough times against the remaining four. If you only finish third (and double your stake) it’s -EV. If you finish first or second most of the time after quadding up then 44% is sufficient odds for this to be both +cEV and +$EV to call. If you play a big stack poorly then folding aces isn’t bad in that spot I guess.
stonecoldbluff said
“By the way, poker star Annie Duke tells me that she has folded pocket aces before the flop on at least one occasion. Of course, there are cases where this would be the correct play. For example, in a super satellite, when you have say, 30% of the chips, eight players win seats, there are 9 players remaining, and a player with more chips than you moves all-in; in this case it would be correct to fold pocket aces.”
“Why risk getting eliminated when you’re only a four-and-a-half to one favorite or less” Why not simply fold and wait for someone else to go broke” After all, eight players all get paid the same in a super satellite. It is a very rare case indeed, that it would actually be correct to fold pocket aces before the flop. It just goes to show you, never say never in poker!”
Phill Hellmuth
11 WSOP bracelets
http://www.philhellmuth.com/articles.html?id=50
bryce said
this is the worst article i have ever read. you don’t fold pocket aces to get itm, you push with them to get the CL to WIN. winning is what its all about..not itm.
the only time to fold aces is a similar situation to yours, but not exactly.
if it is a SATELLITE and you are right on the bubble and there are stax much shorter than yours then you FOLD EVERY HAND REGARDLESS because 1st and xth get the same prize.
but a sit n go as you described that is the dumbest thing ever. re-think.