When Would You Fold A Flush Draw?

Lets set the scene…

You are playing a nice leisurely $1/$2 no limit texas holdem poker cash game. You have $200 in chips and you are sat in late position with Jh Qh. Three other players as well as yourself have entered the pot which stands at $30. The flop comes down 3h 4h Ad. Nice, you have flopped four to a flush.

Any heart left in the deck will give you a tasty Queen high flush, so that gives us 9 outs with 2 cards to come. If we look on our poker odds and outs cheat sheet, we can see that we have odds of 1.9:1 to hit another heart by the river.

Early position bets out $20 and the other two players fold. Action is with you. The pot is now $50 and the bet to you is $20.

Value of Pot ÷ Price of Bet = Your Pot Odds:1

So…

50 ÷ 20 = 2.5:1

This means we are getting pot odds of 2.5:1 and our chance of hitting by the river is 1.9:1. So this is a call.

The turn card brings Ks to give a board of 3h 4h Ad Ks. This is even better as now we have more outs for a nut straight draw. Any one of nine hearts for the flush PLUS any one of four tens for the straight gives us 13 outs with one card to come.

With $70 in the pot, first to act now bets the pot for $70.  Do we have correct pot odds to call this bet?

There is now $140 in the pot and the bet to you is $70.

140 ÷ 70 = 2:1

Our current pot odds are 2:1. Again, if we look on our cheat sheet, if we have 13 outs and are drawing to one card, we require pot odds of 2.6:1 or greater to call.

Unfortunately we have to fold our flush draw because in the long run, we will miss our card more times than we can win the bet.

You could factor in implied odds, or player table image and argue a call in this situation but this is beyond the scope of this post. The bottom line is this: If you are not getting correct pot odds to call your flush draw, or indeed any drawing hand, then you should fold.

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