I played K10s and was drawing to a flush after the flop. There were four of us in the hand and we all called to the turn. I made my flush on the river but someone ahead of me then raised. I thought they might have a better flush draw so I just called the raise (but the raiser was slowplaying a set).
What I’d like to know is:
should I have raised on the flop or re-raised on the river (rather than calling). I suspect I should have done both…?
stonecoldbluff said
It depends on what position you were playing in and how the betting went but I would say as a rule that if there are 3 other players in and you are on a top flush draw then you want to be raising on the flop because the more money goes in the better it is for you in the long run (however, hence the order of betting, it’s not worth raising if you will drive out the others, so best if they have all called a bet and you are last to raise it etc) – The only hand that could beat you is Ax at this time so I would say that you would have to be very unlucky to get beaten by this so it could well be worth a raise, but it’s certainly not wrong to just call.
If you look at the sums though it is unlikely that you are beaten:
He would have to have Ax hand of the same suit as you – “normal” people wouldn’t / shouldn’t really play anything less than A9s (this will depend on position and how tight / loose they are) – therefore he can only have the following:
AQs
AJs
A9s – even if they are nuts and will literally play Ace anything suited – there are 3 “hearts” for example on the board already – you have 2 yourself so there are only 8 hearts left in total meaning that there are only 7 combinations that he could possibly have .. total
That’s 7 hands out of the possible 1326 starting hands even if he’s playing Ace anything – so that’s a 1 in 189.5 chance that he has a better flush than you – so that extra dollar …..
188.5 times you raise and you win
1 time you raise and he wins – that’s an EV of $188.5 overall!
lovely – hope that makes sense
(Serves him right for slowplaying trips with a flush draw available!)