Stone Cold Blog

I’ve said it before and I’m saying it again ….. All in is NOT an informational raise!

I’m trying to save you some cash here guys! – Time after time I see people going all in with hands preflop that they could have got away from, only to get called by a monster!

Take last night’s sit n go for example – 8 players left, I’m sitting there in late position with AA (hoping that someone gets excited!) – Blinds are currently only 50/100 and I have 2650 – a guy in middle position goes all in for 2300 and naturally after a nanosecond I decide to call

he turns over 88 and I’m 80% / 20% to win (which I do)

Let’s re-run it from that guys POV ,seeing how else he could have played it – No one has entered the pot and he decides to raise it 3xBB (300) – it gets folded round to me who can do one of two things: Call or Raise – Definite raise here me thinks – Lets say that I crank it up to 1600 . When it gets back to him he has a decision:

Total pot =  1600 + 300 + 150 (blinds) = 2050
He has to call 1300 more – he is getting odds of 1.58/1

Scenario 1: He folds and still has 2000 in chips to fight another day and is still very well placed in the tourney.
Scenario 2: He calls the 1.58/1 odds and is out of position on the flop.
Scenario 3: He now moves all in for his extra 700 hoping that I will fold (very unlikely! ) or have an under pair

Some odds: He is 7.5/1 against hitting a set on the flop
He is 3.5/1 against to see a flop of all undercards
With him holding 88 he can say that I will be holding a range of hands. We’ll say that he puts me on holding either a Pair ranging from AA-TT or on high cards ranging from AK-AJ (and he’d be right! ). Putting me on these hands I have a 38% chance of holding a pair, that therefore leaves me with a 62% chance of holding the overcards.

If I’m holding an overpair he is likely to win 20%
If I’m holding two overcards he is likely to win 55%  (we’ll say for the ease that it’s 50%)

Poker Hand Analysis: The sums: 0.38(0.20) + 0.62(0.50) = 0.39
So he has a 39% chance of winning which is 1.61/1 (therefore making either his call or moving all in a bad move)

Overall it’s not looking great and I would say that the best policy would be to lay them down gracefully – You have a player (me) who has been pretty tight and solid up until now suddenly re-raising! It’s unlikely that it’s an underpair so you are either a 20% dog or are in a coin flip scenario. Do you want to risk your tournament on these odds?! I wouldn’t.

You have stated that you have a good hand … I’ve stated that mine is better … get over it and move onto the next one, get your chips in when you have the best of it

cheers

(Life Lesson: Always try to leave yourself an exit strategy. Don’t blindly devote everything you have to a cause without assessing all the facts first).