Archive for ev

You Are Never A Ten To One Underdog

I see it time and time again when I play poker. More often than not in MTT’s. Don’t ask me why. Maybe it’s because there is a lot more action on these tables than your standard SNG. Maybe because the players are weak. Or stupid.

To explain a little more what I am on about I shall paint you a picture.

Its a $50 Saturday night MTT. Out of 300 entries, you are down to the last 2 tables. 18 players left. Top 9 get paid. Blinds are 250/500. You are seated UTG+1 with average chips, the short stack is on the BB with 5,000 and the big stack is on the button with 100,000. You are dealt 83u and choose to fold. A wise move here. The table folds to the button who puts in a standard button raise making it 2,000 to go. Small blind pushes all in and the button folds.

WTF?

Why does the big stack fold? Who knows. In any situation where you are playing the big stack and someone goes all in preflop – if it costs you 10% or less of your stack you should CALL with any two cards. Even more so if it is a bounty tournament.

You are never a ten to one underdog in any situation. Even if you are holding 72u and they have AA, you will still win 12.5% of the time. And thats the WORST possible outcome.

Negative EV? Yes. But if calling is hardly going to damage your stack then its worth a pop to take out another player at the table. Even if you lose you get to flip over rags which should secure you a little more action next time you hold the nuts.

With playing a big stack comes big responsibility. Use it wisely and don’t throw your bullying power away.

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